Taking a shot at the future - 15 random thoughts on society and eco for 2015-2025

Part of the fun of being alive is thinking of the future; so to kill time on a flight, I decided to have fun and put out some thoughts on what I see the top 15 future socio-economic possibilities to be (to be validated in 2025 ;)); I would love to hear from you on what you think will be the pre-dominant trends then or hear your comments on some of my random thoughts:

Ø Trend towards urbanization will intensify – voting power will follow and resources will be directed at cities and mega-cities – politicians will no longer be able to play the “rural” card; only lip-service will be provide to the rural communities.

Ø The current set of “Emerging countries” will continue to become more economically powerful and command a much larger share of the world’s wealth and trade.

Ø While the limelight will be on Asia, it is Latin America which will surprise all by the smoothness of its rise; China, India and Russia will grow in spurts – strong forward marches interleaved with big reversal of steps or temporary halts.

Ø Among the rich countries, Japan and Italy will see the most dramatic fall in their prosperity – definitely be out of the G-7 wealthy nations or reduced to be minor voices in the community.

Ø There will be more business innovations (new ways to sell, new ways to pay, new ways to interact, new ways to use resources) coming out of companies in “Emerging BRIC countries” and from the next set of emerging countries (N-11) than in developed countries.

Ø Technology innovations will not be the dominance of a few currently rich nations but rather be much more wide-spread.

Ø Still, the next global mega transformation or socio-economic innovation (similar to outsourcing, the prevalence of Internet, ushering of the information era) will be led by or ushered in because of the needs of the United States of America.

Ø The US and UK will increasingly and more intensely need skills that can drive business value using innovation in communication, computing and Internet technologies.

Ø Emerging countries will acutely need managerial skills, professionals with sophisticated financial skills and people who can establish and manage large institutions.

Ø A larger number of pensioners in the current highly developed countries will live in safe but cheaper havens in Latin America, island states world over and Northern Africa (if Northern Africa becomes more secure).

Ø A larger share of the economic output will be created by small to mid sized companies than the top 100 companies in comparison to current figures.

Ø Even in 2025, the developed countries will have vastly superior “quality of life” (better air, cleaner water, healthier lives, forest/recreational reserves, fitness avenues, cleaner roads, general sanitation) than that of Russia, China and India; the gap between developed and some of top Latin American countries will be much narrower, however.

Ø The biggest and deepest shock to our march towards globalization and prosperity will be due to natural causes - not terrorism, or a war in the Middle East or aggression from China – it will come in the form of a series of natural catastrophic disruptions to trade routes and information highways or …

Ø It (the disruption) will come in the form of an acute shortage of clean water in fast growing economies.

Ø A mid term disruption to global prosperity will occur due to a war that pits alliances (but still not WW3) against each other.