TripTalk: Random thoughts from my last trip to India (Feb 2006)

अब समय आ गया हैं अगली भारत यात्रा का therefore I am posting my thoughts from my last trip to India - random personal reflection - on coffee, corporates, crowds and the internal chaos due to every visit back.

• Cappuccino in India rules! Froth that is thick, whole and enjoyable to the last sip.
• The meat in every meal in India was way juicier than back in Toronto.
• I began to believe even more strongly in the potential of the Indian stock markets despite the recent high valuations; there is energy in the country and more people will get into it once the growth in the property prices become normal and trust in Stock market increases (currently only a miniscule of Indians own shares and they will enter the markets in bigger numbers). I am also counting on pension funds being allowed in at some time and driving the prices up as well as the growth ushered in by the next phase of the infrastructure build.
• Currently India is still in the capital accumulation stage – rampant crony capitalism like all economies that became rich (Colonialism by Europe, Oligopoly in Korea, MITI- Government coalition of Japan and Robber Barons of the US); similarly the “Ambanization” of Indian economy (more than 3% of Indian economy in Ambani Group hands) is stark; I am hoping that given that the Indian economy growth is currently driven by the growth in the service economy, the capital accumulation phase will be shorter and crony capitalism phase will be transitory.
• In the cities, people have very little time, stress is high at work, hours are extremely long, everyone is a hard seller nowadays and worry about delivery later; travel consumes a disproportionate amount of time in a day.
• Resilience of the people in Indian cities is even greater that of the fabled New Yorkers; ability to function, focus and thrive in chaos is the hallmark of most city-dwellers in India.
• Telecom centric observations – the growth continues to be dizzying, I wondered if it can get through to the rural portions of the country soon enough; I also wondered how financially viable the Telecom companies are given the competition; everyone in on a phone these days - who were they talking to before the Telecom revolution; voice mails are not the norm, the cell is always switched on, there is no courtesy regarding usage of cell-phones in public and this is “SMS country”.
• Consumerism rules - in the cities for sure; like in the US, consumers are driving the economy, buying as if there is “no tomorrow”, financial means are greater than in the past, access to credit in urban areas easier, monetary stimulus from the bottom plus continued Government spend will drive the economy (measured or not, it does not matter); money (M3) supply growth is too much and there will be severe pains when the Government will have to squeeze the money supply to keep inflation tame.
• The “black” economy is driving the use of capital more efficiently; while the tax revenues are still leaking and not getting through as the infrastructure and conditions of the common people show.
• The “black” economy is directing growth and purchase of goods & services that people really want; maybe its overall good fore the country.
• But, it means that the salaried will not see the benefits of their tax dollars at work.
• Energy of the youth – lots of enthusiasm, vibrant, driven, fast paced, “wanna do better if not choked”, fulfill life aspirations.
• Media has become incisive, aggressive, glamour obsessed, celebrity loving, sensational and in tune with the urban population - very casual, lively, colorful and intelligent.
• People are engaged in the national debates to a great extent – budget continues to be watched eagerly.
• Bombay/Mumbai – airport is decent and much better than that of Delhi but the chaos on stepping out of the terminal was unimaginable; the previously prestigious South Bombay is deteriorating, the action has shifted to North Bombay – food, fun, bridges, fancier offices. Political disadvantage of Bombay vis-à-vis Maharashtra shows on the social and the urban infrastructure. Most places are eye-sores re architecture – glorious residential towers peep into dilapidated “chawls”; price of units per foot of land in Bombay dearer that in Toronto and near San Francisco levels in $ terms – wow, what a tragedy !
• Delhi –core of the city continues to be green and a pleasure if you ignore the traffic and the increasing people pressure; it is a fun city – awesome food, lots of great joints, easier access to markets and entertainment, surrounded by crazily growing NOIDA and the towers of Gurgaon; slums are rarer in Delhi than Mumbai. The people continue to be less law-abiding than that of Mumbai though.
• However, even in Delhi and Gurgaon, development is often confused as building malls, nice homes – leading to isolated islands of bliss connected to each other by abysmal cesspools of filth, chaos and a hellish existence for those “left behind”.
• Infrastructure – Government cannot cope up with explosive growth; lots of new promises, very little action as yet though Delhi has its nuggets and Bomaby is showing some initial signs of getting started; I am hopeful that barring the Left and pseudo-left’s retrograde ways, Tier 1 and 2 cities will see some positive changes – yup, on my visit, I continuously heard the Public Private partnership words being bandied around liberally and that was promising.
• Police, politics, ability of state to respond and do the right things still a question mark; perversity is that India is legalistic but not a “just” country; Government executives have failed India; activist judiciary and vigilant media with occasional bursts of support from the “Janta” keep politicians and police in check to some extent.
• Roads and traffic – crowds are the first things that “hit” you when you come back to India; too many people, too many cars, too much din and noise; people “honk” without reason and continue to ignore rules of the road.
• Under-employed, unemployed continue to flock to the cities and suffer there; who is bothering to ensure that the people stay back in the villages was not clear to me.
• Another troubling question on my mind while on the trip was “what if when things fail” – Emergency services, monsoon, disruptive or catastrophic event – will it be the same as before or are things better after the recent “growth miracle”. These problems are equally relevant to the rich as to the poor.
• Dress and status often determine respect and the way one gets treated and it can go either ways – I saw both hostility and subservience to better dressed people by those not so “put together”
• Remember instances on trip where Blue label or a “Singapore Sling” can be sipped at stratospheric heights in a setting perhaps even more British than in Britain itself.
• Divide between Limo driver elite and unwashed masses widening; the Ginni Ratio if measurements are captured effectively will show how badly India is faring on equality.
• The great leveler between the rich and poor in the cities is the mobile phone and airline travel – the elites and the masses smashed together at crowded airports shouting at the top of their voices to be heard on their cell-phones.
• Eating hot food on the domestic flights in India is still mind blowing after years of pretzels while flying across the North American skies.
• India from my perspective is on the edge of a needle – can go either ways – middle class is deepening and needs to get to Tier 2, 3 and rural India or it can be checked by the old ills of India – intolerance of caste system, law in hands of political elite
• India tugs at heart – when I said goodbye to people for at-least 2 years after meeting after 3 years, it seemed strange and I am glad that I have the mental switch which allows me to be to be relaxed in such a situation. One parting incident in Bombay particularly made me “go nuts” when an extremely I realized that I had met an extremely “dear” person for just 2 hours in 5 years.
• Family & friends – the warmth is still there; met 3 or 12 years later as if we had last chatted yesterday; new links built and old reinforced.
• The people meetings made me ponder about thinking of relocating; but in saner moments, I realized that the heart is ready to go back but the mind says a flat NO.
• And that’s when I made a rule to make decisions on re-location (for a few years to India to re-connect even strongly with family and friends) – based on facts on the ground and the joys of living in the West, the only routes that I can take to get back to India would be if I decided to be an entrepreneur, get a deputation from TNC/MNC to India, decide to get involved in a VC/fund or get engaged in Policy making; else its not worthwhile making the move. Sonika however may have different ideas and want to take steps to be in India even though I may not be ready.
• My next trip is going to be about visiting different corners of India – mix of rural and urban, meet as many people as possible and hey take a trip to Goa too.