Canada – then and now – in numbers (10 data sets) as part of the 10 years in Canada (Jan 1999-2009) series

On Jan 19, 2009 we completed 10 years in Canada (with the Greater Toronto Area as our base). That is a big deal – no actually, it’s a huge deal - given that our initial view was that we would be perpetual global nomads: spend 2-3 years here, then move to another part of the Americas, and gradually make our way through Africa and Europe to Asia. A relaxation in the plans to “be on the move”, rapid acclimatization/addiction to the social & professional environment in Canada, accumulation of immovable assets and some exogenous factors changed all that. And we decided to stay put.

So, in a series to mark the 10^th anniversary of our coming over (Jan 19, 2009), I will post 4 or 5 blogs starting with this one. In these, I will dwell on the aspects I am most passionate about our life here in Canada. Starting with a story of Canada in dry stats, I will weave in personal stories, thoughts on what I love most or rail most about and of course reflect on travel through this great big land mass.

I have picked 10 sets of statistics about Canada that reflect the social and economic changes over this period. Hopefully, they make for a couple of “aha” moments J … Instead of elaborate comments analysing each set of stats, I will limit myself to a maximum of one paragraph on each of these 10 sets and leave you to make your own conclusions.

1. The key economic stats were stable over the 10 years

Parameter/Dimension	1999	2009
Inflation for previous year	0.99	2.37
Unemployment	7.6% (Jan)	7.2% (Jan)

When we landed in Jan 1999, people here were talking about how they had got through some tough economic times in Canada just a few years back with huge unemployment and big deficits. The Government had taken some serious measures in controlling the deficit and repaying the debt (more about it in another point below) and over the decade here, we saw more stable conditions play out.

2. Canada and Canadians grew pretty well over the decade

Parameter/Dimension	1999	2009
GDP (In PPP terms) per Capita (in USD) – World Bank figures	$ 27,051	$ 36,444– world rank: 12
Canada’s population	30,499, 200	33,487,208

Canada despite several serious economic and structural deficiencies continues to attract people to the country to fill this 2^nd largest country in the world.

3. Canada looked good compared to most of its other peers in the OECD

An open economy (no manipulation of currency and subject to international financial scrutiny), hugely dependent on the US for its exports, supported by a rather small population of relatively relaxed people with almost a European model of social welfare system and a huge Government STILL managed to hold its own and look good compared to its peers in the OECD over the decade (1999-2009) as these two tables below show.

Surplus (+) or deficit (-) as a per cent of potential GDP
	1998	1999		2000	2001	2002	2003		2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Australia	3.6	3.6		2.3	2.1	3.4	3.1		2.5	2.7	2.7	2.5	2.3	1.5	1.5
Austria	1.0	-0.2		-0.5	1.9	1.4	1.1		1.7	0.9	0.3	1.0	0.4	-0.2	-0.1
Belgium	6.9	5.9		5.3	5.6	5.0	4.0		4.0	3.6	3.5	2.8	2.6	3.0	3.0
Canada	5.3	5.5		5.2	3.0	2.1	1.7		2.4	2.5	1.8	1.6	0.7	0.3	0.1
Czech Republic	..	-3.9		-5.0	-4.1	-4.0	-4.4		-1.7	-2.4	-2.9	-2.0	-1.9	-1.3	-0.8
Denmark	2.5	3.5		3.4	2.2	1.8	2.2		3.7	6.2	4.9	3.8	1.8	0.3	0.0
Finland	2.9		2.8	6.7	4.8	4.0	2.7		2.3	2.7	3.2	4.0	3.4	3.1	2.9
France	0.8		1.1	0.3	0.3	-0.9	-1.6		-1.0	-1.0	-0.2	-0.6	-0.6	-0.4	-0.1
Germany	0.8		1.1	0.8	-0.8	-1.2	-0.7		-0.4	0.2	1.1	2.1	1.9	2.0	2.2
Greece	4.1		5.0	2.6	2.0	1.1	-0.8		-2.1	-1.1	-0.5	-0.7	0.1	1.4	2.1
Hungary	-0.3		1.0	1.8	0.1	-3.9	-3.9		-3.9	-5.5	-7.1	-1.6	0.5	1.6	2.8
Iceland	0.0		1.4	1.9	-0.6	-2.2	-1.7		-0.4	2.9	4.4	3.8	2.9	1.3	1.5
Ireland	3.8		4.3	3.9	0.0	-1.2	0.1		1.3	1.3	2.2	-0.4	-4.6	-3.7	-3.2
Italy	5.3		5.3	4.1	2.7	2.5	0.6		0.7	0.4	2.1	3.1	2.6	3.4	3.7
Japan	-4.1		-5.4	-5.5	-4.9	-5.9	-5.5		-5.7	-4.5	-3.0	-2.4	-1.9	-2.1	-1.4
Luxembourg	3.5		2.6	3.6	2.3	0.5	0.0		-1.0	-0.2	0.7	2.0	1.2	0.9	1.2
Netherlands	2.4		2.8	2.5	0.7	-0.7	-0.5		1.0	2.4	2.6	1.8	2.0	1.6	1.5
New Zealand	1.5		0.5	2.3	2.4	3.4	3.5		3.1	3.3	2.7	2.2	1.8	-0.2	-0.9
Norway1	-7.3		-7.4	-10.9	-11.1	-11.7	-13.6		-12.9	-13.4	-13.4	-11.9	-13.3	-13.0	-13.2
Poland	-0.5		-0.3	-0.9	-1.7	-1.9	-2.6		-3.6	-2.5	-2.6	-1.6	-1.9	-1.5	-1.4
Portugal	-0.2		-0.6	-1.5	-2.7	-2.4	-2.4		-2.0	-2.3	0.0	1.6	1.2	1.0	1.1
Spain	1.7		2.0	1.6	1.5	1.8	1.8		2.0	2.4	3.1	3.3	1.0	0.6	0.8
Sweden	1.8		1.9	3.1	1.6	-0.6	-0.6		0.7	2.1	1.4	2.5	2.6	1.5	1.5
Switzerland	-0.7		0.1	1.7	0.6	0.3	-0.1		-0.3	0.4	1.5	1.6	1.5	1.4	1.3
United Kingdom	2.9		3.1	3.1	2.3	-0.4	-2.0		-2.2	-1.6	-0.8	-1.1	-1.8	-2.6	-3.3
United States	3.4		3.1	3.4	1.5	-1.6	-2.6		-2.5	-1.5	-0.7	-1.0	-3.1	-3.3	-3.0
Euro area	2.0		2.2	1.6	0.9	0.4	0.0		0.2	0.4	1.2	1.6	1.3	1.5	1.6
Total OECD	1.8		1.6	1.5	0.4	-1.3	-1.9		-1.8	-1.1	-0.3	-0.2	-1.2	-1.3	-1.1
Note: Adjusted for the cycle and for one-offs and excludes the impact of net interest payments on the underlying balance.
1. As a percentage of mainland potential GDP. The financial balances shown are adjusted to exclude net revenues from petroleum activities.
Source: OECD Economic Outlook 84 database.

General government gross financial liabilities (% of nominal GDP)
	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Australia	32.3	28.0	25.0	22.2	20.1	18.8	17.0	16.7	16.1	15.4	14.2	13.4	13.3
Austria	68.4	71.2	71.0	72.0	73.2	71.3	70.8	70.3	65.9	61.9	62.6	64.8	67.7
Belgium1	122.9	119.5	113.5	111.8	108.3	103.5	98.6	95.7	91.2	87.6	92.2	92.3	92.1
Canada	95.2	91.4	82.1	82.7	80.6	76.6	72.6	71.1	68.0	64.1	63.0	65.6	66.9
Czech Republic	..	..	..	..	33.1	34.9	34.7	34.9	34.7	38.4	36.1	35.1	34.8
Denmark	69.7	64.1	57.1	55.0	55.4	53.6	50.1	42.3	37.4	31.0	28.4	28.5	29.5
Finland	60.9	54.7	52.4	49.8	49.5	51.3	51.4	48.4	44.8	41.5	39.6	38.8	39.2
France	70.7	67.1	65.9	64.4	67.4	71.5	74.1	76.0	71.5	70.1	72.5	75.9	79.0
Germany2	62.2	61.5	60.4	59.7	62.1	65.3	68.7	71.1	69.4	65.5	64.8	66.3	66.3
Greece	97.6	101.1	114.9	117.9	116.3	112.5	114.4	112.3	105.8	102.3	100.8	99.8	99.1
Hungary	64.9	66.2	60.1	59.7	61.0	61.4	65.3	68.7	71.9	72.0	71.8	73.6	75.3
Iceland	47.9	43.4	41.0	45.9	42.1	40.8	34.5	25.4	30.1	24.0	24.8	122.4	126.7
Ireland	62.2	51.3	40.1	37.4	35.2	34.1	32.7	32.6	28.8	27.9	32.8	40.9	48.4
Italy	132.6	126.4	121.6	120.8	119.4	116.8	117.3	119.9	117.1	113.2	113.0	114.4	115.9
Japan3	113.2	127.0	135.4	143.7	152.3	158.0	165.5	175.3	171.9	170.6	173.0	174.1	177.0
Korea	13.1	15.6	16.3	17.4	16.6	18.4	22.6	24.7	27.6	28.9	32.6	31.5	33.3
Luxembourg	11.1	10.0	9.3	8.2	8.5	7.9	8.5	7.6	10.4	9.9	18.1	17.3	20.2
Netherlands	80.8	71.6	63.9	59.4	60.3	61.4	61.9	60.5	54.2	51.7	54.5	54.2	54.7
New Zealand	42.2	39.6	37.4	35.4	33.5	31.4	28.6	27.5	27.1	25.3	25.3	28.4	32.8
Norway	30.8	30.8	34.0	32.9	40.5	49.3	52.7	49.1	60.9	57.9	45.4	52.7	57.4
Poland	43.8	46.6	45.4	43.8	55.0	55.3	54.6	56.4	55.9	52.5	52.8	54.0	55.5
Portugal	65.2	62.0	61.1	62.6	66.1	67.2	69.5	73.0	72.0	70.1	70.9	72.9	75.1
Slovak Republic	41.2	53.5	57.6	57.2	50.3	48.3	47.3	38.7	34.7	36.5	38.0	39.0	40.0
Spain	75.3	69.4	66.5	61.9	60.2	55.3	53.4	50.8	46.6	42.7	44.2	47.7	51.8
Sweden	82.5	73.7	64.7	63.4	60.5	59.8	59.5	59.7	52.5	47.0	44.6	41.3	40.5
Switzerland	54.9	51.9	52.5	51.3	57.2	57.0	57.9	56.5	50.6	48.6	48.1	47.5	47.3
United Kingdom	52.5	47.4	45.1	40.4	40.8	41.2	43.5	46.1	46.0	46.9	58.7	63.6	69.4
United States	64.5	61.0	55.2	55.2	57.6	60.9	61.9	62.3	61.7	62.9	73.2	78.1	82.5
Euro area	80.3	78.5	75.3	73.9	74.2	75.1	75.9	77.0	74.7	71.4	70.7	73.2	74.7

Total OECD	72.9	72.2	69.5	69.8	71.7	74.0	75.6	77.4	76.0	75.0	79.7	82.8	85.8
Note: Gross debt data are not always comparable across countries due to different definitions or treatment of debt components. Notably, they include the funded portion of government employee pension liabilities for some OECD countries, including Australia and the United States. The debt position of these countries is thus overstated relative to countries that have large unfunded liabilities for such pensions which according to ESA95/SNA93 are not counted in the debt figures, but rather as a memorandum item to the debt. Maastricht debt for European Union countries is shown in Annex Table 62. For more details see OECD Economic Outlook Sources and Methods (http://www.oecd.org/eco/sources-and-methods).
1. Includes the debt of the Belgium National Railways Company (SNCB) from 2005 onwards.
2. Includes the debt of the Inherited Debt Fund from 1995 onwards.
3. Includes the debt of the Japan Railway Settlement Corporation and the National Forest Special Account from 1998 onwards.
Source: OECD Economic Outlook 84 database.

4. The markets recognized these general improved conditions

Parameter/Dimension	1999	2009
On Jan 19, 1 US $ =	1.53 CAD	1.24 CAD
S&P/TSX Composite index	6800	8842

When we came to Canada, it took discipline on our part not to de-camp for a US salary with the huge differential in the forex rate … by 2009, the Canadian $ (Lonnie as we call it) was up significantly against the US $ (and had touched parity in between). The stats above are as of Jan 19, 2009 but since then the fall of the US $ against the C$ has led to a deliberate attempt by Canada to “talk down the C$” to prevent the impact on exports. The rising demand/price for oil and base metals along with the stabler banks in Canada ensured that the stock market didn’t go down in Canada as severely as in the US during these very tough economic times.

5. BUT .. the story on labour productivity was not encouraging …

Labour Productivity Index: 1999-2008 (2002=100) Canadian Economy - Business and Non-business Sectors
NAICS Code	Sector	Productivity Index		CAGR* 1999-2008	% Change 2007-2008
		1999	2008
*Compound Annual Growth Rate (Source: Statistics Canada, 1999 to 2008.
11-91	Canadian Economy	90.7	115.0	2.4%	0.5%

In an era of huge computerization worldwide, shift towards a service economy and strong growth in prices and demand of “Canadian stuff (oil, gas and metals), between 1999 and 2008 labour productivity in the Canadian economy increased just 2.4% per year on average, which when compared to many fast growth countries was dismal (but perhaps the employees/workers became even more chilled and relaxed in this period J).

6. … and the economic competitiveness of the country is rather mixed

Beyond labour productivity, other factors too show signs of weakness, a fact reflected in the table below – where despite signigficant progress in Canada’s measures on economic freedom, Canada slipped dramatically when measured on competitiveness.

Parameter/Dimension	1999	2009
Canada’s world-wide rank in terms of competitiveness – source: World Economic Forum Measure of competitiveness: “set of institutions, policies, and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country.” Uses 12 pillars for measurement across Infrastructure, Education, size of market, financial access etc.	World Rank = 3 (using 2001 ranking as a proxy as this was the most reliable figure I got publically)	World Rank = 9
Index of Economic Freedom – source: Heritage Freedom and Wall Street Journal Measures 10 dimensions of freedom: Business, Trade, Fiscal, Govt Size, Monetary, Investment, Financial, Property Rights, Freedom From Corruption, Labour	World Rank = 25	World Rank = 7 (Score = 80.5) versus #1 – HK with score of 90)

7. Interestingly, services producing part of economy grew faster than goods producing despite the media pre-occupation on Canadian autos, oil, gas and metals industries

Other than construction, all good producing components of the economy grew 1% or less over the period 1999-2008 while every component of the services sector grew at 1.5 % or more. This set of stats did surprise me given the media pre-occupation with oil, gas, metals and the auto/manufacturing story.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Industry Sector: 1999-2008 Canadian Economy (NAICS 11-91)
NAICS Code	Sector	GDP* (millions of chained 2002 dollars)		CAGR** 1999-2008	% Change 2007-2008
		1999	2008
*GDP is expressed in chained 2002 dollars in order to maintain accurate growth rates. Chained levels are non-additive, therefore sector values will not add up to the value for the Canadian economy. **Compound annual growth rate. ***GDP values for these three sectors are combined. Source: Statistics Canada, Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 1999 to 2008.
11	Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting	26,193	25,965	-0.1%	-1.9%
21	Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction	50,000	55,311	1.0%	-3.5%
22	Utilities	28,982	31,143	0.7%	-0.6%
23	Construction	49,053	74,570	4.3%	2.3%
31-33	Manufacturing	171,923	175,617	0.2%	-5.2%
Goods Producing Industries (NAICS 11-33)		326,151	362,606	1.1%	-2.9%
41	Wholesale Trade	49,396	70,360	3.6%	0.1%
44-45	Retail Trade	49,437	74,556	4.2%	3.0%
48-49	Transportation and Warehousing	46,603	56,755	2.0%	0.2%
51	Information and Cultural Industries	31,617	45,118	3.6%	1.7%
52, 53, 55***	Finance and Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing and Management of Companies and Enterprises	181,851	247,017	3.1%	2.7%
54	Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services	41,845	58,515	3.4%	1.1%
56	Administrative and Support, Waste Management and Remediation Services	20,934	31,106	4.0%	0.5%
61	Educational Services	50,162	60,525	1.9%	2.8%
62	Health Care and Social Assistance	63,754	79,262	2.2%	2.9%
71	Arts, Entertainment and Recreation	9,333	11,728	2.3%	0.1%
72	Accommodation and Food Services	23,804	27,753	1.5%	2.2%
81	Other Services (except Public Administration)	23,335	32,520	3.4%	3.1%
91	Public Administration	56,674	69,438	2.1%	2.9%
Services-Producing Industries (NAICS 41-91)		648,745	864,653	2.9%	2.1%

8. Trade winds shifted gradually over the decade though the US continued to dominate the export markets SIGNIFICANTLY

In 2008 a trend of diversification in Canada's export destinations continued, as reliance upon the United States was diminished. Although the United States still accounted for 77.7% of Canadian exports in 2008, this was down from 79.0% in 2007 and 86.7% in 1999. Non-US countries that saw their share of Canadian exports increase notably included Brazil and Asia Pacific countries (mainly Japan and South Korea). Exports to Brazil (not shown) were up 70.7% over 2007 levels, and Japan overtook China to become Canada's third most important export destination after the United States and the United Kingdom.

Top Export Destinations: 1999-2008 Canadian Economy (NAICS 11-91)
2008 Rank	Country	2008 Value in $ billions	CAGR* 1999-2008	% Change 2007-2008	% of 2008 Total Exports
						*Compound annual growth rate. Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade, 1999 to 2008.
1	United States	375.5	2.0%	5.5%	77.7%
2	United Kingdom	13.1	10.5%	2.0%	2.7%
3	Japan	11.1	2.6%	20.3%	2.3%
4	China	10.5	14.7%	10.1%	2.2%
5	Mexico	5.8	13.7%	17.9%	1.2%
6	Germany	4.5	6.4%	15.3%	0.9%
7	South Korea	3.8	6.7%	27.5%	0.8%
8	Netherlands	3.7	9.0%	-8.5%	0.8%
9	Belgium	3.4	6.1%	14.7%	0.7%
10	France	3.2	5.5%	3.6%	0.7%
	Top Ten	434.6	2.6%	6.2%	89.9%
	Other Countries	48.9	9.4%	18.6%	10.1%
	All Countries	483.6	3.1%	7.3%	100.0%

9. On social measures, Canada continued to be a shining light

While one can be concerned about aspects of the economic parameters, on the social front, Canada continued to hold its high standing. Even though in perception, it lost its standing on the much-followed UN HDI, it scored higher than decade before and even though Canadian troops were doing duty in Afghanistan, Canada continued to be rated very high on measures of peace.

Parameter/Dimension	1999	2009
Canada’s rank on UN Human Development Index (across the world) – higher score is a better score. Methodology of measure: 3 dimensions of measures: · Life expectancy at birth, as an index of population health and longevity · Knowledge and education, as measured by the adult literacy rate and the combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrollment ratio · Standard of living, as measured by the natural logarithm of GDP per capita at PPP	1 (score of 0.932)	3 (score of 0.967)
Global Peace Index ranking (1st measured in 2007) – lower score is a better score. Methodology of measure: 23 indicators of the existence or absence of peace, which are divided into three broad categories: measures of ongoing domestic and international conflict, measures of safety and security in society and measures of militarization.	Rank: 8 (1.481) in 2007	Rank - 8 (score - 1.311)
Corruption Perception Index (Least corrupt country ranking) (Source: Transparency International) Measures the perceived levels of public sector corruption in 180 countries and territories. A composite index, the CPI is based on 13 different expert and business surveys.	6	9

10. The changing complexion of Canada gathered momentum over the decade

Ever since Canada opened its door to immigrants, the number of people immigrating to Canada has been on the rise. Canada’s growing social acceptance of diverse people, strong social infrastructure and relatively strong economic performance proved more attractive than its foreboding winters and the closed attitude at work towards recent immigrants. By 1996, there were 3.2 million visible minorities (Chinese, SE Asian, South Asians, Middle Eastern, Blacks and other clearly distinguishable folks) representing 11.2 % of the population, by 2001, there were 3.98 million visible minorities comprising 13.4 per cent of the total population and by 2006, 5,068,100 visible minorities accounting for 16 per cent of the total population.

Even beyond the visible minority story, the number and share of the foreign-born population in Canada has on the whole been rising from 1901 to 2006 and gathered momentum over the last decade. The census enumerated 6,186,950 foreign-born in Canada in 2006. By comparison, the 1901 Census counted fewer than one million foreign-born. This number gradually rose to almost 1.6 million people born outside Canada in 1911, to almost 2 million in 1921 and to 2.3 million in 1931. However, the foreign-born population fell over the war years. The 1941 Census showed 2.0 million in 1941, and that of 1951, 2.1 million. Since then, the foreign-born population has been growing steadily, rising from 2.1 million in 1951 to 2.8 million in 1961, to 3.3 million in 1971, to 3.8 million in 1981, to 4.3 million in 1991, to 4.9 million in 1996, to 5.5 million in 2001 and finally, close to 6.2 million in 2006. In 2006, 19.8% of the entire population was people born outside Canada. This is the highest proportion recorded since 1931, when foreign-born represented 22.2% of the population.