Wednesday, January 16, 2008

2008 US Presidential race - Interesting candidates, mundane speeches, unpredictable outcome

As our close friends to the South get into the heat of the election season, a political animal like me has to get interested and when I am interested, I need to express myself. Here are my key observations on what is transpiring (as of Jan) as the results come in for yesterday's polls in Michigan. The diversity of the candidates' backgrounds makes the current 2008 process very watchable. America quite clearly is willing to experiment - it seems it is becoming more accepting of having its Commander-in-chief and Head of State come from a non-traditional background. With the exception of Mike Huckabee and John Edwards, the leading candidates on both the Democrat and Republican sides are from backgrounds that have rarely made it so far in the run-up to the election - a lady and a black man on the Democrat side are the real ones in contention and one without a huge political machinery behind him; two non Protestants - one from the Mormons and a Catholic and a very old man are the leads on the other side - moreover, the disqualifier of past - of not having an ideal family is clearly not applying to Rudy as he continues to maintain his lead in some national polls. While all these interesting backgrounds and historic possibilities of electing some non-WASP middles aged man is making the drama very watchable, what seems mundane are the policies declared and the speeches given on both sides. Everyone seems to be populist at a time, and plainly sticking to sloganeering instead of being articulate. The only person who is articulate, knows his subjects and has well defined policies is Ron Paul, but then he is too intellectual to be elected the President of the US. He is way behind the other candidates as he has none of the "3 Cs" (my invention, with some literary license) that seem to be needed in US Presidential politics to win - Connections - with the rich & powerful, Comedy skills - to make people laugh and Cheapness - to make personal attacks on others. Instead he is burdened with the "3C" disqualifiers - Content depth, a Conscience and Character. Anyway, since America wont vote Ron in ever, let me stick to those who have chances. On the Republican side, I am still hoping its Mitt Romney who is nominated. He has charisma, more competence than any one else, less chances of being swayed by lobbyist being successful and wealthy himself and sounds largely competent. Rudy and McCain tie in as my #2 but God Save America and the World if Mike Huckabee gets nominated as it will confirm the retreat of the US to the medieval times. However, the general pessimism and anger against the current Republican presidency across the States simply makes it very difficult for a Republican to triumph so lets chat about the Democrats- it is a Democrat's race to lose this time. I personally don't care whether it is Obama or Clinton. Initially, if elected, both will enthrall the press by creating history, both will be populists and both will bring stock market down in the short run. But my sense is that after the initial euphoria dies down, Hilllary as President can do a better job (though she will definitely deepen the sense of divisiveness currently prevailing in America) and make the US stronger than Mr. Obama would. Obama as President will either have to pick a fabulous team around him and completely rely on them to run the Government or he will be continuously gasping for breath through the initial few years as Mr. President. While the 2 parties go through the selection process and the outcome of the nomination races are still unclear, what will make it really interesting is the introduction of an Independent into the Presidential mix and who better than Mayor Bloomberg to add more colour to the race, provide a real alternative to the American people and increase the competence quotient of the candidates in the running. Impossible and frightening as it may seem, there is always the danger that megalomania may get the better of CNN TV anchor, Lou Dobbs and he may "throw in the hat" as enter as an Independent. He will definitely add more unpredictability (he will probably hurt the Republican candidate more) to the race and a new fiery flavour (however distasteful) to the mix. So bring in the Independents, America, and make CNN more watchable for your friendly neighbours to the North.

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